The great American slowdown

Apr 10th 2008
From The Economist print edition

The recession may not be as severe as many fear, but the recovery could take longer—and that is dangerous

AMERICANS are unaccustomed to recessions, particularly ones that involve shopping less. During the past quarter-century, the world's most powerful economy has suffered only two official downturns, in 1990-91 and 2001. Both were short and shallow. In 2001 consumer spending barely skipped a beat; a decade earlier it fell, but only briefly. Buoyed by rising asset prices and financial innovations that allowed ever more people to tap ever more debt, the collective American wallet has not snapped shut in almost two decades.

That may be about to change. Evidence is mounting that the economy has slipped into recession—and this time consumer weakness is to the fore (see article). The doughty American shopper is being pummelled by four things: the housing bust, the credit crunch, higher fuel and food costs and, most recently, a weakening labour market. The unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in March, while the private sector lost jobs for the fourth month in a row. Feeling poorer and with fewer people prepared to lend them money, consumers are cutting back: witness the slump in car sales. And seeing that consumer spending accounts for 70% of American demand, that hurts, especially when it is coupled with a collapse in the once mighty construction industry. The IMF now officially predicts an American recession in 2008; many at the Federal Reserve think output is contracting.

Shallow but lengthy: you could do a lot worse

There are two big questions about this downturn for America and the world: how long? And how deep? On the second count, there is room for guarded optimism: although American recessions have usually sent the world economy into a funk, this time the slowdown need not be so severe—especially for the emerging world. The economic tests instead may come from the length of this downturn: an America that stays sluggish for several years could cause all sorts of problems.

That is not to imply that a severe global slowdown is out of the question. The IMF reckons that there is a 25% chance of the world economy growing by less than 3% in 2008 and 2009, the equivalent of recession, in its view. The origins of this crisis lie in the biggest asset bubble in history; financial markets have already suffered arguably their biggest shock for 80 years; and America is not the only developed economy suffering (Britain's housing market, for instance, is showing the same symptoms as America's—see article). But so far at least there is little evidence that the world economy is falling off a cliff.

The pace of job losses in America has been mild compared with previous downturns, and there are a couple of reasons to suppose it will stay that way. The first is the activism of American policymakers. Congress started throwing money at the problem early, and a second fiscal stimulus is already being discussed (alongside a bail-out for the housing market). The Fed has slashed interest rates, promised more cuts if the economy stays weak and—perhaps most important—sharply reduced the odds of financial-market catastrophe by extending its safety net to investment banks.

The second is the changing structure of the world economy. The dynamism and resilience of emerging markets mean that America does not matter as much as it once did. The IMF expects global growth to fall from 4.9% in 2007 to 3.7% this year—hardly catastrophic. Moreover, these foreigners can now do a bit to cushion the blow for Americans: already global demand, coupled with a weak dollar, is boosting American exports. Meanwhile, some losses from America's housing bust have been borne abroad, although not without pain.

With these props, America can avoid a deep slump, but don't expect a vigorous recovery. Spending will be supported by tax rebates in the second half of the year, but the hangover from the housing bust will linger much longer. Judging by the experience of other rich countries that have suffered financial crises spawned by housing busts, such as Sweden and Norway in the early 1990s, weak balance sheets will weigh on consumers' spending for years rather than months. The 2008 recession may be mild, but the 2009 recovery will be feeble.

Beware the slithering snail

If the world economy's biggest problem turns out to be America remaining snail-like for longer than most people expect, many will breathe a sigh of relief. Given the scale of the financial mess, it could be a lot worse. You can even argue that after five years of breakneck growth, a more sedate global expansion would be no bad thing: it would dampen inflationary pressures in the emerging world, and weaker domestic demand should shrink America's gaping external deficit—already down from above 6% of GDP to below 5%.

But that is about as far as optimism can take you. The main fear is that the rest of the world proves less resilient than now seems likely: commodity exporters, say, may rely on American demand less than they did, but are hardly cut off from it. The weak dollar also causes problems. Importing America's loose monetary policy will become harder to sustain for countries, such as the Gulf states, that peg their currencies to the greenback. They will need to let their exchange rates rise.

Politics too can do plenty of damage. A sluggish America next year will be a hard inheritance for the next president. With the budget deficit rising, big domestic reforms, such as expanding health-care coverage, will become more difficult; with a fragile economy, the Democrats, if they get in, may have to rethink their plan to roll back George Bush's tax cuts.

And do not forget populism and protectionism. Already eight out of ten Americans say their country is on the wrong track. A protracted malaise will spawn an angry search for scapegoats. Even though free trade is helping save Americans from a worse downturn, Mr Bush is struggling to get a trade deal with Colombia through Congress (see article): heaven help the Doha round. Meanwhile, the momentum to re-regulate financial markets and punish the oil industry, credit-card firms or indeed any other malefactors of great wealth will grow. The great American slowdown may be less calamitous than many people fear; but it is fraught with dangers.

Payrolls Probably Fell, Factories Shrank: U.S. Economy Preview

Payrolls Probably Fell, Factories Shrank: U.S. Economy Preview

By Bob Willis

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. employers probably eliminated jobs in October for a 10th consecutive month, while manufacturing contracted at the fastest pace since the 2001 recession, economists said before reports this week.

Payrolls shrank by 200,000 workers, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the Labor Department's report on Nov. 7. The unemployment rate may jump to its highest level in more than five years.

``It should be another lousy report,'' said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York. ``This'll be another nail in the consumer's coffin.''

The loss of almost one million jobs, falling property values, slumping stocks and frozen credit may cause consumers and businesses to keep retrenching. The state of the economy gave Democrat Barack Obama a lift over Republican rival John McCain as Americans, who will elect a new president in two days, perceived the Democrat from Illinois had a better grasp of the issue.

The projected drop in payrolls would be the biggest in five years and follow a decline of 159,000 in September. Factories probably cut 62,000 workers from payrolls, according to the survey median.

The jobless rate last month probably rose to 6.3 percent from 6.1 percent in September, the survey also showed.

``Unemployment is likely to rise sharply over the next several months as repercussions from the credit crisis ripple through the economy,'' said Russell Price, senior economist at H&R Block Financial Advisors in Detroit. ``The economy is the most important issue on the minds of voters.''

Economy, Election

The report will be released three days after Americans choose between Obama and McCain. The faltering economy and imploding financial markets helped push Obama ahead of McCain of Arizona in polling in key battleground states in recent weeks.

On the question of which candidate they trust most on the economy, voters in Florida picked Obama over McCain by a 9-point margin, and in Ohio, the Democrat led by 12 points, according to a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll issued last week.

Manufacturing, which accounts for about 12 percent of the economy, probably shrank for a seventh time in nine months, the Institute for Supply Management's factory index may show tomorrow. The gauge probably fell to 41.5, the lowest level since October 2001, from 43.5 the prior month, according to economists polled. A reading less than 50 signals contraction.

``Downside risks to growth remain,'' the Federal Reserve said last week as it lowered its key rate by a half point to 1 percent. ``Business equipment spending and industrial production have weakened in recent months, and slowing economic activity in many foreign economies is damping the prospects for U.S. exports.''

Automakers

Automobile and car-parts makers are leading the downturn in manufacturing. ArvinMeritor Inc., a Troy, Michigan-based maker of auto and commercial-truck parts, said last week it's cutting 1,250 jobs.

``Swift and decisive actions are necessary in response to today's global economic conditions,'' Chief Executive Officer Charles ``Chip'' McClure said in a statement.

Service industries, which range from homebuilders to mortgage lenders, retailers and restaurants, and account for almost 90 percent of the economy, also probably contracted in October, economists forecast another report from the Institute for Supply Management will show on Nov. 5.

The group's non-manufacturing index fell to 47.2 last month from 50.2 in September, according to the median of economists' forecasts in a Bloomberg survey.

The economy shrank at a 0.3 percent pace in the third quarter, with consumer spending dropping by 3.1 percent, the biggest decline since 1980, the Commerce Department reported last week. Business investment in equipment and software fell at a 5.5 percent rate. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the economy will contract at a 0.8 percent rate in the fourth quarter.

                         Bloomberg Survey

=================================================================
                       Release    Period    Prior     Median
Indicator                 Date               Value    Forecast
=================================================================
ISM Manu Index            11/3      Oct.      43.5      41.5
ISM Prices Index          11/3      Oct.      53.5      48.0
Construct Spending MOM%   11/3     Sept.      0.0%     -0.8%
Factory Orders MOM%       11/4      Jan.     -4.0%     -1.0%
ISM NonManu Index         11/5      Oct.      50.2      47.2
Initial Claims ,000's     11/6    Oct. 25     479       477
Cont. Claims ,000's       11/6    Oct. 18     3715      3745
Productivity QOQ%         11/6       2Q       4.3%      0.9%
Labor Costs QOQ%          11/6      2Q P     -0.5%      2.8%
Nonfarm Payrolls ,000's   11/7      Oct.      -159      -200
Unemploy Rate %           11/7      Oct.      6.1%      6.3%
Manu Payrolls ,000's      11/7      Oct.      -51       -62
Hourly Earnings MOM%      11/7      Oct.      0.2%      0.2%
Hourly Earnings YOY%      11/7      Oct.      3.4%      3.5%
Avg Weekly Hours          11/7      Oct.      33.6      33.6
Pending Homes MOM%        11/7     Sept.      7.4%     -3.7%
Whlsale Inv. MOM%         11/7     Sept.      0.8%      0.3%
Cons. Credit $ Blns       11/7     Sept.      -7.9      -0.4
=================================================================

To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net

Dollar Continues to Rally across the G10

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by AC-Markets | Jul 23 08 20:19 GMT |

Dollar Continues to Rally across the G10 The Usd rose in the European session based on a continued decline in oil prices and light volatility. The EurUsd traded down over 100 pips to 1.56, while the UsdJpy rose to the high 107 price. The GbpUsd is slightly off its early high of 2.00 at 1.99, based on a persistent trend of dollar strength. Equity markets traded higher in the US and Europe based on lower oil prices and a string of positive corporate earnings. Bond Traders continue to sell govt. securities in a migration back to riskier component of the market. In addition, commodities fell across the board with oil trading lower at 124 and gold lower by nearly $30 at 920 setting the stage for a Usd rally. Industrial production fell in the Eurozone to -3.5% vs. -4.4% expected, although the data beat expectations, it was still negative. The overall manufacturing outlook for the region is increasingly pessimistic, which is consistent with the recent trend in deteriorating growth. Inflationary pressure is weakening a bit on the back of lower oil prices, which would give the ECB room to possibly hold next meeting. We project the EurUsd to see a floor of 1.56 in the near-term and resistance around the 1.59 level. These ranges are likely to act as a sliding scale in tandem with oil prices due to the high degree of correlation. The BoE held rates at 5.00% despite severe growth issues in the UK, which gave the cable strength early on in the trading session. The central bank noted recent increases in inflation, but was not prepared to hike rates considering the weakness in the overall UK economy. The GbpUsd should remain trade between 1.98 and 2.00 in the near term. US Financial markets rallied on weaker oil prices and gave way for the dollar to rally across most of the G10. Risk appetite is increasing, which is reflected in the recent rally in equities and sell off in the treasuries. If the housing sector starts to stabilize we can expect a strong move to the upside in the Usd, and a clearer picture of what the Fed will be willing to do in their next meeting. AC Markets http://www.ac-markets.com Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by AC Markets (thereof ACM) and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Salesperson or Traders of ACM at any given time. ACM is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. buy or sell?

Berita Fundamental - Rabu, 23 Juli 2008

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Dari Australia, nilai CPI yang baru saja direlease oleh Bureau of Statistics pada pukul 08.30 WIB pagi tadi nilainya menjadi 1.5% atau lebih tinggi dari prediksi pasar yang sebesar 1.2% dan juga nilai pada periode lalu yang sebesar 1.2%. Inflasi Australia selama quartal kedua ini merupakan yang tertinggi selama dua tahun terakhir, menimbulkan tekanan bagi bank sentral untuk menaikan tingkat suku bunga kembali. Tingkat suku bunga yang saat ini berlaku merupakan tingkat suku bunga tertinggi selama dua belas tahun terakhir. Gubernur Bank Sentral Ausi Glenn Stevens mengatakan bahwa bank sentral kemungkinan akan memotong suku bunga negara itu meski Australia mengalami perlambatan ekonomi selama 17 tahun terakhir.
Nilai AUDUSD yang nilainya 0.9715 saat sebelum CPI dinaikan naik menjadi 0.9738 lalu turun kembali menjadi 0.9690 lalu terkoreksi naik kembali menjadi 0.9710.

Stevens yang menaikan tingkat suku bunga menjadi 7.25% pada bulan Maret lalu mengatakan bahwa target inflasi yang ideal menurutnya adalah 2 - 3%.

Su-Lin Ong, pakar ekonomi senior RBC Capital Markets di Sydney mengatakan bahwa "Bank Sentral akan bersiap-siap untuk menghadapi tingkat inflasi yang semakin meningkat". Dia juga menambahkan bahwa nilai CPI yang baru saja diumumkan naik itu tidak membuat RBA (Bank Sentral) mengambil tindakan yang cukup serius.

Bensin & Rumah Sakit
RBA sepertinya akan tetap mempertahankan tingkat suku bunga dalam beberapa bulan kedepan untuk mengantisipasi tekanan kredit global dam kenaikan harga bensin yang menguras pendapatan rumah tangga. Saat ini harga bensin di Ausi naik 71% selama 12 bulan terakhir.

Kebijakan suku bunga berikutnya adalah tangga; 5 Agustus dan revisi&prediksi inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi akan diumumkan tanggal 11 Agustus.

Harga bensin naik 8,7% pada kuartal ini, diikuti naiknya bunga deposito dan pinjaman sebesar 9,5%. Sementara itu biaya rumah sakit dan kesehatan juga naik 4%.

Pada 16 Juli lalu Stevens mengumumkan bahwa kenaikan harga minyak dan suku bunga akan menambah pendapatan sebesar US$1 trilyun. RBA juga mengatakan pada bulan Mei lalu bahwa nilai GDP tahun ini akan mencapai 2,25% atau turun sebesar 3,9% dibandingkan dengan tahun 2007.

Consumer Confidence
Nilai Consumer Confidence Ausi juga turun pada bulan Juni ini dan juga terendah selama 16 tahun terakhir, pesimis terhadap sektor bisnis terendah sejak bulan Juni 2001, dan juga kredit rumah juga menurun sejak delapan tahun terakhir.

Katie Dien, ahli ekonomi senior Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. di Melbourne mengatakan bahwa tidak ada angka yang menggambarkan solusi atas permasalahan inflasi di Ausi maupun di New Zealand. Ditambahkan lagi olehnya bahwa jika berbicara tentang kebijakan moneter merupakan suatu hal yang prematur.

Investor banyak yang percaya bahwa bank sentral(RBA) akan memotong tingkat suku bunga, karena adanya tekanan dari Credit Suisse Group. Para trader juga percaya bahwa Steven(Gubernur RBA) akan memangkas minimal 11 basis poin (0.11%) dalam 12 bulan kedepan. Pada bulan-bulan pertama tahun ini, para trader memprediksikan suku bunga akan naik setidaknya 19 basis poin(0.19%).

Baik. Kita tinggalkan Ausi dan New Zealand, mari kita bahas dua buah berita yang akan direlease hari ini Rabu 23 Juli 2008.

Pada pukul 15.30 WIB akan berlangsung voting BoE MPC Meeting Minutes. Hasil voting diprediksikan tetap bila dibanding dengan periode sebelumnya yaitu 8-1 hld.
Jika hasilnya sama yaitu 8-1hld atau 7-2 cut, 6-3 cut, dst maka rekomendasi kami adalah Sell GBPUSD.
Jika hasilnya 9-0 hld maka Anda bisa Buy GBPUSD.

Pada pukul 18.00 WIB nanti nilai Core CPI Kanada akan direlease. Kenaikan atau penurunan nilai berita ini juga berpengaruh terhadap basis perdagangan USD seperti EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY, dll sama seperti berita Core Retail Sales m/m Kanada kemarin(22/7) jam 19.30 lalu.

Ya, pukul 18.00 WIB nanti nilai Core CPI m/m Kanada diprediksikan nilainya adalah sebesar 0.2% atau lebih rendah dari nilai pada periode sebelumnya yang sebesar 0.3%.

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Pada Belajar Forex terdapat puluhan artikel fundamental baik yang cukup penting atau yang sangat penting untuk Anda pelajari. Semuanya dalam Bahasa Indonesia untuk memudahkan Anda mempelajarinya. Namun untuk memudahkan Sekolah Anda saat ini, berikut dilampirkan beberapa berita ekonomi yang perlu Anda simak beserta keterangan singkat dan pengaruhnya terhadap mata uang. Ingat bahwa Anda selalu dapat mengetahui lebih detail informasi berita fundamental pada section Analisa Fundamental di website ini. 1. Average Earning Index (AEI atau biasa disebut Average Earning saja): Berita ekonomi ini biasanya dikeluarkan oleh Inggris dan Kanada. AEI memberikan informasi pendapatan para pekerja dan hubungannya dengan tingkat inflasi melalui indikator fundamental lainnya yang disebut RPI (Retail Prices Index). Bila AEI mengalami kenaikan lebih cepat dibandingkan RPI maka ini adalah indikasi bahwa upah mengalami kenaikan lebih cepat dibandingkan kenaikan harga barang. Hal ini baik bagi perekonomian sebuah negara namun dampak negatifnya adalah naiknya tingkat inflasi. Pada forex trading apabila inflasi mengalami kenaikan maka mata uang cenderung akan menguat dikarenakan ekspektasi meningkatnya suku bung. Dengan demikian dapat disimpulkan bila AEI mengalami kenaikan maka mata uang akan naik juga. AEI tergolong high volatility expected indicator. 2. Chicago PMI: Ini adalah indikator fundamental khusus yang dikeluarkan oleh Amerika Serikat. Chicago PMI (atau PMI saja) memberikan informasi naik atau turunnya tingkat pengeluaran para purchasing manager di kota Chicago yang banyak diantaranya merupakan industri manufaktur. Naiknya indikator ini merupakan indikasi menguatnya mata uang USD. PMI tergolong high volatility expected indicator. Oh ya, PMI itu singkatan dari Purchasing Manager’s Index 3. Consumer Price Index (CPI): Inggris dan Amerika Serikat merupakan negara yang paling sering mengalami naik turunnya mata uang dikarenakan berita CPI ini. CPI merupakan indiakator penentu tingkat inflasi di titik konsumen. CPI sendiri membantu menentukan berapa besarnya kepercayaan konsumen dalam satu bulan dalam melakukan pembelian. Apabila CPI naik maka mata uang negara yang bersangkutan juga akan ikut naik. CPI tergolong indikator medium volatility expected namun apabila perhitungan CPI dilakukan diluar sektor makanan dan energi maka CPI dapat menjadi high volatility expected fundamental indicator karena kedua sektor tersebut merupakan sektor yang paling sering berubah dari waktu ke waktu. CPI biasa dikeluarkan seKitar tanggal 13 setiap bulannya pada pukul 20.30 WIB (13.30 GMT). 4. Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Hampir semua orang tahu apa itu GDP. Bahasa Indonesianya Produk Domestik Bruto. GDP merupakan salah satu indikator fundamental penting dalam keseharian forex Kita. Bila GDP mengalami kenaikan maka secara sederhana mata uang akan menguat dikarenakan produksi sebuah negara juga meningkat. 5. Money Supply: Indikator ini mengukur tiga hal yaitu jumlah uang yang beredar di masyarakat dalam bentuk koin atau kertas, besarnya pinjaman bank kepada masyarakat dan jumlah perubahan nilai hutang yang belum dilunasi oleh pemerintah. Naiknya Money Supply biasanya akan menyebabkan mata uang menguat. 6. Non Farm Payrolls: Ini salah satu berita yang paling ditunggu-tunggu oleh kebanyakan trader fundamental. Non Farm Payroll (dikeluarkan oleh US) muncul sebulan sekali pada hari Jumat minggu pertama. Non Farm Payrolls mengukur besarnya pengeluaran pemerintah dalam pembayaran gaji diluar sektor pertanian dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya. Meningkatnya Non Farm Payrolls dapat mengakibatkan mata uang menguat dengan drastis dalam hitungan puluhan hingga beberapa ratus point. Jadi NFP dapat digolongkan indikator very high volatility expected. 7. Producers Price Index (PPI): PPI merupakan indikator pengukur tingkat inflasi sama seperti CPI. Bedanya jika CPI berada di sisi konsumen maka PPI mengukur inflasi dari tingkat produsen. Kenaikan harga bahan baku, biaya transportasi dan berbagai komponen produksi menjadi bagian dari perhitungan PPI. Jika PPI mengalami kenaikan maka mata uang akan menguat. PPI biasa dikeluarkan seKitar tanggal 11 setiap bulan pukul 20.30 WIB (13.30 GMT). PPI tergolong high voltility expected indicator. 8. Retail Sales: Retail Sales mencatat total penjualan barang di sektor tetapi tidak termasuk jasa karena pengukuran jasa tergolong sulit. Retail Sales merupakan salah satu indikator yang baik untuk mengukur tingkat pengeluaran konsumen. Biasanya bil AEI (Averaga Earning Index) mengalami kenaikan maka Retail Sales juga akan meningkat karena naiknya upah pasti diikuti meningkatnya konsumsi. Bila Retail Sales naik maka mata uang juga akan naik nilainya. Retail Sales dikeluarkan seKitar tanggal 12 setiap bulannya pada pukul 20.30 WIB (13.30 GMT). 9. Trade Balance: Trade Balance adalah selisih antara nilai ekspor dikurangi nilai impor sebuah negara. Nilai minus menunjukkan impor lebih besar dibanding ekspornya dan sebaliknya jika positif itu menunjukkan espor lebih besar dibandingkan impor. Kebanyakan negara yang sedang melakukan ekspansi perdagangan atau negara berkembang memiliki Trade Balance yang negatif. Namun demikian dalam pasar uang, semakin positif nilai Trade Balance maka semakin menguat nilai mata uang negara tersebut. 10. ISM Manufacturing Index (ISM-MI): Insititute of Supply Management Manufacturing Index merupakan indikator terbesar untuk indikator fundamental yang mengukur indeks manufaktur. Dikeluarkan pada hari pertama jam kerja setiap bulannya, ISM-MI merupakan hasil surver lebih dari 20 industri manufaktur dan melibatkan 300 purchasing manager di Amerika. Cara pembacaannya kurang lebih sama, bila ISM-MI mengalami kenaikan tentu saja mata uang negara yang bersangkutan akan menguat. 11. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI): merupakan indikator yang mengukur tingkat kepercayaan pada 5000 konsumen yang di survey dan pAndangan mereka terhadap prospek ekonomi kedepan. CCI dikeluarkan setiap hari Selasa pada akhir bulan pukul 22.00 WIB (15.00 GMT). Bila CCI mengalami kenaikan itu artinya kepercayaan konsumen meningkat terhadap perkembangan ekonomi dan mengakibatkan mata uang dapat meningkat. CCI tergolong Moderate Volatility Expected indicator. 12. Interest Rate Statement: Setiap bulannya Bank Sentral tiap-tiap negara selalu mengumumkan kebijakan suku bunga bank sentral sebagai patokan bagi bank-bank lainnya di negara tersebut. Keputusannya apakah naik, turun atau tetap. Suku bunga tersebut pada akhirnya akan menentukan besarnya suku bunga deposito, kredit, tabungan dan berbagai kebijakan pinjam-meminjam lainnya pada dunia perbankan di negara itu. Dapat dikatakan kebijakan suku bunga merupakan salah satu aksi final Bank Sentral terhadap berbagai kondisi ekonomi yang terjadi di negaranya. Pasar uang termasuk jenis investasi yang sensitif terhadap perubahan suku bunga. Terutama apabila terjadi perubahan suku bunga yang tidak diprediksi sebelumnya oleh pasar. Sederhananya apabila terjadi kenaikan suku bunga maka dapat dikatakan bahwa mata uang akan meningkat dengan drastis dan sebaliknya apabila terjadi penurunan suku bunga maka mata uang akan mengalami pelemahan dengan drastis pula. Kebanyakan negara maju menahan laju suku bunganya untuk menghambat terparkirnya dana di Bank dan tidak diolah menjadi investasi di dunia riil. Sebaliknya pada negara berkembang biasanya pemerintah mencetak terlalu banyak uang untuk membiayai kegiatan pembangunan. Untuk itu diperlukan kebijakan suku bunga yang lebih kompetitif guna menarik uang yang terlalu banyak beredar dipasar dengan cara membuat bunga tabungan dan deposito terlihat menarik. Pada saat tulisan ini dibuat, suku bunga Jepang ada pada rate 0.5% sedangkan US dan Inggris berturut-turut di level 5.25% dan 5.50%. Indonesia? Kondisi makro ekonomi Indonesia sedikit membaik sejak awal 2007 sehingga suku bunganya turun dari 9.5% menjadi 8.25%. Ingat bahwa Anda dapat kapan saja membaca resume lengkap mengenai berita fundamental diatas pada bagian lain di website ini yang membahas khusus mengenai artikel fundamental. Semakin banyak detail yang Anda tahu akan semakin membantu Anda dalam bertrading. 6. Analisa Fundamental Analisa Teknikal Apa itu Analisa Fundamental? Consumer Price Index (CPI) Konsep Analisa pada Forex Trading

LATEST NEWS About MB Trading About Asia Kapitalindo Consumer Confidence Index - Indeks Kepercayaan Konsumen POPULAR Selamat Datang di Sekolah Forex The Candlestick Formations Moving Average Convergence Divergence Home Forex Login Berita Ekonomi Forum Download Kamus Forex Sekolah Forex Sitting Duck Walking Lamb Running Pig Hunting Fox Forex Education Pengenalan Forex Software Trading Analisa Teknikal Analisa Fundamental Money Management Tokoh Investasi Product FREE Demo Account FREE Tutorial CD FREE Live Training Open Real Account VIP Investor Contact US About Us Privacy Policy Sahabat Belajar Forex Risk Disclosure Advertisement Careers

TWIN DISASTERS

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae

No love for these two stocks.

Even after Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson made a statement ensuring that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would remain as presently constituted to carry out their mission it was not enough to satisfy most investors.

Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac hold about $5 trillion worth of mortgage guarantees in this country, roughly about half of the 9.5 trillion mortgage debt. Their survival is paramount.

The trouble with these two companies is the latest depressing factor in the current credit and confidence crisis that the United States is going through at the present time. This type of negative information is depressing for stocks and weighs on the minds of investors. This type of mindset is similar to the early seventies when we witnessed the last prolonged bear market.

There are no quick fixes to our current set of problems, only trading opportunities.

We live in a capitalist society and these are the cycles that we go through every 30 to 40 years. This is the price we pay for living in a free society.

My new eight minute video shows in detail how easy it is to avoid disaster stocks like Freddie and Fannie. I also show you in very clear terms how to fortress your portfolio to withstand any type of financial tornado that blows through the world economy.

Enjoy the video,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com

Tags: Trading signals, Trading Tips, Trading Videos

This often overlooked technical indicator is a winner

July 14, 2008 · Filed Under General, Traders Toolbox · 1 Comment

Parallel trendlines

I am constantly amazed that some of the simplest tools available to technical analysts are often the most effective. One of these simple tools is parallel trendlines. I have used them to identify planes of support and resistance on the charts.

At times, these parallel trendlines will form channels. Commonly, a market will stay within a bounded channel for a sub- stantial period of time. However, these trendlines are not limited to channels of equal width. The weekly corn chart reveals a market which has followed the same angle, or plane, of movement for much of the past three years, but within channels of various widths.

There are three primary applications of this tool which are very useful. The first is to expect a market to respect existing parallel boundaries of support and resistance. Second is to expect a significant change in market action when a boundary is significantly violated. And third is to expect the market to eventually resume trading on a parallel plane at a new level. The weekly corn chart is a good example of all three applications.

Tags: Trading, Trading Tips

Is GOLD the last store of value on the planet?

July 11, 2008 · Filed Under General, Special Video Reports, Technical Indicators, The Key to Trading Success, Trading Tips, Trading Videos · 8 Comments

Hi, Adam Hewison here. I’ve just finished a new movie on gold and I would like to share it with you. This new video shows what may happen to gold in the next one to three months. There’s a lot of potential in this market, but there also is potential risk involved. The good news is that risk can be managed with stops and potential target zones can be measured through chart patterns.

I hope you enjoyed the video I made on 7/09/08 (well before today’s big jump in gold) to illustrate that sometimes the markets tip you off to what they’re going to do next.

With all the financial turmoil in today’s troubled world, it seems like gold may be the only store of value that everyone’s going to turn to in the very near future. Many of the European banks have not fessed up to all of their investing/trading problems and I expect that this could well be the other shoe that falls.

On 7/10/08, our “Trade Triangle” technology signaled a new buy for the spot gold market. Watch the video and I’ll show you exactly how high we think this market could go in the future.

As always, we welcome your comments and thoughts on the markets.

Every success,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com

Tags: Gold, Trading Tips, Trading Videos

Traders Toolbox Lesson 4: How to profit and use pivot areas effectively

July 7, 2008 · Filed Under General, Traders Toolbox · 14 Comments

Over the years, I have found certain areas of support and resistance to be especially effective in trend analysis. These special levels have been given the term pivot areas. These are areas which, once reached, act like a pivot man in basketball. The pivot man is faced with the choice of which direction to send the play; once the decision has been made and the ball has been passed, the play generally continues in that direction. When a market reaches a pivot area, a decision needs to be made to go higher or lower, and once a decisive close has been made away from or beyond the pivot area, the direction is likely to continue.

A good example of a pivot area is the 5040 level on the weekly hog chart. When the market has approached this level, it has either clearly turned or definitely con- tinued the existing trend with very little consolidation. Other examples include the 550 level in soybeans, 500 area in silver and sugar, 5500 area in cattle, 1500 level in soybean oil, the 80-00 area in Treasury bonds and the 205 level in soy- bean meal. Many markets exhibit pivot areas especially well on Gann (contract specific continuation) charts.

Tags: trading strategies, Trading Tips

How to trade successfully in any market

July 1, 2008 · Filed Under General, Trader Lessons, Traders Whiteboard, Trading Videos · 1 Comment

Happy Q3.

In this short video we will be looking at five key components that you need to be successful in your trading in Q3. The ones we have picked out today are not on every pro trader’s list, so I think they will surprise you.

We consider these five components to be incredibly important to anyone’s trading success, most of all yours.

If you have the time check out our other Traders Whiteboard lessons. We now have a total of eight lessons that you can benefit from and they’re available here.

All the best in trading,

Adam Hewison

Tags: Trading, Trading Tips, Trading Videos

Traders Toolbox Lesson 3: Change is inevitable

June 30, 2008 · Filed Under Traders Toolbox · 9 Comments

The most powerful ally you can have in trading and analysis is the trend. A market may stay in a given trend for a long period of time, but change is inevitable.

Since change is inevitable, it is important to be able to identify when or where a market may turn. I use an analytical tool called terminal areas to identify a time or a place in the market where a trend potentially may change. Terminal areas are the single most powerful tool I possess.

The word “terminal” is defined as, at or reaching an end. It can also mean a stopping point. The importance of terminal areas is that these are the only places where a market can make a major turn. Very simply, a market cannot make a major change in trend unless it is in a position to do so. When a terminal area is reached, and if the end of the trend is at hand, the old trend will die and a new trend will be born. However, reaching a terminal area does not mean a trend change is automatic. Since terminal areas also serve as a stopping point, a market may experience an interruption of trend instead of a change in trend. An interruption of trend will develop as a congestion area or a sideways pattern, preceding continuation of the trend.

There are six primary areas which can be termed terminal. These are: 1) Major retracement levels, primarily 25%, 38%, 50%, 62%, and 75%; 2) congestion or sideways areas of the past, preferably from weekly, or even longer-term, charts; 3) old highs and lows, again from longer-term charts; 4) trendlines natural trendlines, Andrews lines, Gann angles or whatever your preferred method of drawing trendlines; 5) gaps caused by market action, not those created by the changing of contract months on a continuation chart; and 6) critical points in time, such as cycle turns, anniversary dates, Fibonacci counts, etc.

The combination of several terminal areas greatly enhances the probability of a major turn. Combine two terminal areas and you have a point which has as much as three times the influence of a single terminal area. Three converging terminal areas have the potential to be as much as nine times more powerful than a single area. Occasionally, a convergence of four legitimate terminal areas will occur. This development can evolve into the “home run” type of move.

Terminal areas which have the greatest impact for a major trend change are found on long-term charts. Also, I have found the combinations which have the highest reliability in forecasting a turn usually include a major time point.

Tags: trading strategies, Trading Tips

Traders Toolbox: Lesson 2 Discipline

June 23, 2008 · Filed Under Traders Toolbox · 1 Comment

Discipline Of all the “tools” available to the trader, none is more important than his or her own mind! Lack of mental discipline has to be the primary cause of losses in the marketplace. Why else would traders with years of experience and reliable systems fail to be consistent winners? Show a 6-year-old child a chart and he will tell you if a market is going up or down by simple observation. Yet, 80% or 90% of all traders end up as losers. The market doesn’t beat you; you beat yourself!You are your own worst enemy!

Challenges of a trader’s mental discipline exist in many areas of the marketplace and appear in many different forms. Virtually every trader who has spent any amount of time in the commodity business has experienced one or more of the following upsets to his mentality: My broker says … ; the report said. .. ; the weather will be … ; but this time is different; ABC is buying; XYZ is selling; it’s too high to buy; it’s too low to sell; if I get out today the market will turn tomorrow; I saw it coming but my broker (wife, husband, brother, friend, etc.) talked me out of it; and my favorite “They say…”

The trader lacking confidence in his own abilities will seek advice from anyone who will agree with his position. In doing so, he often finds the group of experts called “they” quoted. Invariably, he will stay with a bad position or prematurely abandon or exit a good position because “they” said so and so. Interestingly, in all my years in the business, I have never been able to locate a government agency or an advisory service under the title of “THEY.” Do not take the advice of anyone unless you are sure they know more than you do.

Contrary opinion or bullish consensus is a measure of mental attitude. When 80% to 90% of traders are bullish, a market may be termed overbought. How does a market become overbought? High bullish consensus readings develop when traders are “sold” on the idea a mar- is going higher. The idea is promoted by market action and by media attention. A prime example was the media blitz during late 1987 which said foreign currencies would never experience another down day. Finally, everyone was convinced the sky was the limit and, as usual, when everyone knew what the market was going to do, they were wrong. When a person is bombarded by a multitude of news re- ports,it is extremely difficult to examine a market from an unemotional and objective point of view.

However, to be successful, you have to develop such a mental discipline. mental discipline is necessary in any competition you enter. The competition the trader faces is the battle he has with himself. He must be able to avoid the emotional forces constantly tugging at his mind. He must defend against im- pulsive greed when a market is “leaving” without him and against fear when a market is moving against his position. He has to maintain the confidence that his analysis is correct and enter orders based on this confidence even when it is “obvious” the analysis can’t be correct. When he suffers a loss, the trader must fight the “I have to get it back” syndrome. When he succumbs to this malady, he begins to trade equity instead of the marketplace and he is doomed to throw good money after bad.

My observation has been the most dangerous period a trader can face is when he first becomes a winner. I have had the good fortune to catch some significant moves in the past and have received a number of calls from people who were overjoyed with their positions; in some instances, the callers were nearly euphoric (probably long hogs or bellies).

All too often I have watched new winners gain the feeling of overconfidence and indestructibility. Greed sets in and one- or two-contract traders become five- and ten-contract traders. They hit on another trade or two and the ego goes limit up; now they can do no wrong. Suddenly, they are one of the “big swingers”; then disaster strikes. The hot streak turns cold and the equity leaves faster than it came. Their emotions leave an island top and they plunge into mental despair. They become another statistic marked to the loser category.

Where do the new winners go wrong? In general, they have not learned the lessons of past losses and do not have the discipline to continue the trading strategy which finally brought them into the winner category. What is different about the consistent winners? First of all, most of the consistent winners were losers at one time. They learned from their losses. They went on to study which tools work and then implemented those tools.

But most importantly, they have undergone a self examination to determine their mental flaws and how to correct them. Like a championship boxer, they realize they can win the first 14 rounds of a fight, but if they let their guard down and relax, they can still lose by a knockout in the final round. It takes work to become a winner and even more work to stay a winner.

Tags: trading strategies, Trading Tips

Now this would get my undivided attention!

June 17, 2008 · Filed Under Trader Lessons, Trading Tips, Trading Videos · 7 Comments

Imagine you’re in your favorite restaurant enjoying a nice dinner. All of a sudden a beautiful young lady jumps up on the table and starts dancing even though there is no music.

Would that get your attention?

I know it would get my attention, not because it was a beautiful lady, but because it is out of the realm of normalcy for this restaurant to have anyone dancing on their tables.

The point I am making is this… sometimes markets act a little out of the ordinary despite what everyone is saying and thinking about them. When this happens you need to pay close attention to that market.

Why? Because that market maybe getting ready to do something totally contrary to prevailing sentiment.

For the first time in 20 months we have received a signal that many would consider out of the ordinary and going against popular sentiment.

I have prepared a short video that I would like to share with you today.

Here’s the video link.

Let me know how you enjoy the video and if you found it helpful. You can reply back to support@ino.com.

Thanks for reading this e-mail and every success in the markets and in life,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com

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Tags: trading strategies, Trading Tips, Trading Videos

New educational video on Apple’s stock price.

June 10, 2008 · Filed Under Technical Indicators, Trader Lessons, Traders Toolbox, Trading Tips, Trading Videos · 1 Comment

Tuesday, June 10th, 2008

FR: Adam Hewison, President INO.com

RE: New educational video on Apple’s stock price.

Dave Maher my partner, just uploaded a new educational video on Apple’s stock price that I made after the close on Monday. I think you’ll find it interesting and very educational given Apple’s big announcement yesterday on the new iPhone.

Click on the chart to watch my new 3 minute educational trading video on Apple,

Cheers,

Adam Hewison

President, INO.com

P.S. Here’s all the details of the Apple announcement courtesy of AP

——————–

By JORDAN ROBERTSON
AP Technology Writer

(AP:SAN FRANCISCO) The iPhone will soon be $200 cheaper _ and come with satellite navigation, faster Internet access and other new features _ but higher monthly service charges are likely to erase most of the savings.

Apple Inc. revealed Monday that it has scrapped its pricing plan for the iPhone as it unveiled a model that works over faster wireless networks, addressing key criticisms about the device that have hurt the company’s foray into the cell phone industry.

An 8-gigabyte version with the new features will go for $199 when it goes on sale July 11, and a 16 gigabyte model will cost $299, the Cupertino-based company said.

Current iPhone owners who buy a new model and sign up for a new AT&T contract won’t have to pay any penalties to get out of their current contract, AT&T spokesman Michael Coe said. And anyone who bought an iPhone in an AT&T store after May 26 can return it before Aug. 1 for full credit against a new one _ less a 10 percent restocking fee.

Apple plans to make up the difference in sales revenue with volume _ and with subsidies wireless carriers will now pay for the right to carry the gadget.

In changing the pricing arrangements, Apple is pulling out of revenue-sharing arrangements with some wireless carriers, a move that frees the carriers to charge higher prices for the service.

Apple shares fell $4.03, or 2.2 percent, to close Monday at $181.61 on the news, a sign that some investors were hoping for more and others were taking their profits after a four-month run-up in Apple’s stock price, which leaped from $120 in March.

The new iPhones, initially to be introduced in 22 countries, are designed to work over so-called 3G, or third-generation, wireless networks and have global-positioning technology built in.

They will also support Microsoft Corp.’s Exchange software, an addition that puts the iPhone in more direct competition with Research in Motion Ltd.’s BlackBerry and Palm Inc.’s Treo smart phones and is intended to appeal to the business market.

Analysts have said Apple needed to slash the iPhone’s price and make it usable on faster networks to hit the company’s target of selling 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008. Apple said the 3G iPhones download data twice as fast as the older ones.

Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs said Apple has sold 6 million iPhones since the first model launched nearly a year ago and 700,000 since March. That points to a steady slowdown in sales starting in the fourth quarter last year as customers waited for a 3G version.

Jobs showed off the new models of the iPhone and about a dozen new applications for the device at Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference in San Francisco.

New applications range from video games that use the iPhone’s motion-sensing technology to guide characters to study tools for medical students and a program that allows users to find nearby cell-phone-carrying friends on a map.

One program brings real-time video highlights and game stats from MLB.com; another creates an Associated Press news feed based on the user’s location and lets users submit news tips to the AP.

Apple also announced a new Web-based service called “MobileMe,” which the company describes as “Exchange _ for the rest of us,” a consumer-friendly way for people to link their iPhones to their home and work computers so updates entered into one device automatically appear in the others.

MobileMe will cost $99 per year and come with 20 gigabytes of online storage.

AT&T Inc., the exclusive U.S. carrier for the iPhone, said service for it will start at $39.99 per month, plus $30 for unlimited data. That works out to a $10 increase from the cheapest plan for the first-generation iPhone; over the course of a two-year contract, that increase wipes out the savings from the price cut Apple announced Monday.

AT&T’s pricing covers only U.S. residents. While iPhone prices will drop outside the U.S. too, it was not clear whether other carriers would raise monthly fees to compensate.

AT&T also warned that it will take an earnings hit due to the pricing because new subsidies it agreed to pay will produce the iPhone price cut _ not a reduction from Apple.

Apple said in a regulatory filing that under most of its new carrier agreements, it will not receive a share of subscribers’ monthly service fees as it has under contracts for the first-generation iPhone.

Jobs said Apple waited to improve the iPhone for use on the faster network because the chips available when the iPhone first came out sapped too much battery life and were too bulky to fit the iPhone’s slim design.

The addition of global-positioning technology improves the iPhone’s accuracy in locating users. Current versions use a combination of cell-phone towers and Wi-Fi locations to help users figure out where they are.

The 1.73 million iPhones Apple sold in the first three month this year gave it a 5.3 percent share of the worldwide smart-phone market, according to research firm Gartner. Apple has been adding overseas markets gradually with carrier deals.

Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Tags: apple, Profitable Charting Techniques, Trader Lessons, Trading Tips

Attitude = Altitude in trading

June 6, 2008 · Filed Under Traders Toolbox, Trading Tips · 2 Comments

One of the most important tools that a trader possesses is his or her mind. Attitude can either make or break you as a trader.

To become a successful trader it begins with believing in yourself and having a winning attitude.

Everyone wants to be a winner, at least they think so. Unfortunately, most are not willing to perform the tasks necessary to become a consistent winner.

Winners generally achieve success by being focused on a goal. Being focused allows winners to remain committed to the tasks at hand. Most winners perform a lot of hard work, including a willingness to deal with sometimes mundane duties. Most of all, winners perform with an “I am responsible for both my failures and successes” attitude.

So, where does the would-be trader start to become a success? By focusing on the tasks at hand. Most of all, treat trading as a business. And, as in any business, money management is critical.

Money management, next to trend, is probably the aspect of trading most overlooked by smaller investors. Man, by nature, is an optimistic creature and the amateur trader often acts instinctively. Unfortunately, this instinct or optimism is often the undoing of the smaller trader.

When a person enters a trade, he does so with the hope that it will be a winner. When the position goes against him, he keeps thinking (or hoping) “it will come back.” He knows he should have a stop in place, but hope keeps telling him to stay just a little longer since everybody knows, “you always get stopped out the day the market turns.” Eventually, hope turns into frustration, desperation and, finally panic which prompts the trader to issue a GMO (get me out) order.

If the trader hasn’t learned his lesson by this point, he develops the “I have to get it back” syndrome. He generally rushes into another poorly planned trade, throwing good money after bad.

Winners show several different characteristics. They enter the market knowing they can be wrong and, in fact are wrong as often as they are right. They have learned markets don’t run on hope. They understand markets tell them when they are right or wrong. When a trader is losing money and getting worse, the market is telling them to get out.

Bad Trades

A bad trade is like a dead fish:The longer you keep it, the worse it smells.

Good Trades

When a trade is making money, the market is telling them they are right and to let the position ride.

Don’t ever do this …

Winners don’t add to, or “average”, losing positions. They dump the trade and go looking for a new opportunity. Successful investors may add to the winning trades. When ahead, they press their advantage while remembering that at any time the market can turn on them and prove them wrong.

In trading keep your mind clear and do not get emotional about a trade. Remember you are not married to a stock rather you are in the dating game.

Learn more about common sense trading.

Adam Hewison

Co-founder of MarketClub